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Posted by
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January 31, 2013 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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@ENBSports
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There are a number of reasons why analyzing the Canada National Men's team games against Denmark and United States was so different in terms of results and performance. To me the thing that stuck out the most was familiarity with the opponent. It appeared that for the United States game, Canada knew what they were going to be up against, while in the game against Denmark they had no clue about their opponent and paid the price.
Being prepared and understanding your opponent is an essential component in all sports. I can remember watching Canada's National Hockey team live against Norway in the World Championship in which Canada narrowly won 2-1. Although you could argue Canada took them lightly, it amazed me how this group of 6'3 NHL players couldn't handle the speed of the 5'8 Norwegians. In soccer, with a field so large and so many opportunities with formation and style of play, I think understanding your opponent plays an even larger role.
In the game against the United States, like many who watch MLS regularly, I was very familiar with the US National Team players. Based on the US starting lineup I expected Chris Wondolowski to be a threat as he and Graham Zusi were the only players on both the US/Canada rosters who I had in my 2012 prospect list. I expected crosses on set plays by Graham Zusi and Brad Davis, long balls in hope that Eddie Johnson would beat a lazy defender and unfortunately in terms of entertainment, a team who will have difficulty creating chances with possession, which is one of the ongoing concerns in analyzing MLS play.
In terms of the game against Denmark, I wouldn't expect most people in Canada watching the match to know much about the Danish side. In my work, the Danish Superligean is one of the 60+ leagues that I breakdown statistically and analyze. I was quite familiar with most of the players and even wrote a blog post last November how Andreas Cornelius was one of the breakthrough players in football.
He was listed him in my top 100 "under 20 year old" players in the world. I also had defender Jores Okore and forward Nicklas Helenius in my Danish Superligean top prospects list that I produced at the end of the 2011-2012 season last June. Added to that, anybody who has seen Denmark play before knows Dennis Rommedahl, despite his age, still has the ability to play the wing and cross an early ball.
I would say in Canada defense's the strength of their opponent had some say in the final results and Denmark might not have had more success than the United States if Canada decided to play a more defensive system against Denmark. Although a 0-0 draw with US is a good results, I would criticize Canada for not taking any risks offensively and respecting the United States too much.
Part of the issue against the U.S. is other than Tosaint Ricketts, who I don't rate highly, Canada didn't have a forward who would provide a threat up top. I was disappointed Frank Jonke didn't get more playing time as he is a real hand full with his club FF Jaro in Finland and would loved to see Daniel Haber get a chance with the national team prior to joining his new club Maccabi Haifa. Defensively, I would like to see Canada experiment more with formations, potentially even playing a 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 with Ashtone Morgan and Andres Fresenga as left and right fullback to pressure early crosses and potentially create counter attacks on defensive clearances.
I think the most recent World Cup Qualifiers should show us that Canada is not going to win games on talent alone. We also have limited control on access to players, and based on geography we don't have the ability to play a large amount of friendlies. What we should have is the management and coaching resources that allow us to be fully prepared when given these opportunities. When we're prepared and know what to expect Canada has shown enough skill and determination to compete, however it's these naive performances like the game against Denmark that are making us one of the laughing-stocks in world soccer.
Aaron Nielsen has worked within the soccer/sports industry for over 15 years. His statistical analysis brings the beautiful game in a whole new light. The detailed player data and prospect lists he produces are used by many scouts, agents, and football insiders around the world.
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