For me, the 2015 story regarding the Montreal Impact is one of potential hope and disappointment. At the end of the 2014 MLS season I wrote an article about how the Impact could forge a unique path in MLS and North American Soccer, emphasising on the potential success and even winning the 2014-2015 CONCACAF Champions League and advancing to the World Club Championship. I wrote this knowing Pachuca is a very weak Liga MX club and the Impact wouldn't be scheduled to play CF America until the final, the only true quality team left in the tournament.
A last minute goal by Cameron Porter keeps this dream alive, but Montreal will be heavy underdogs if they first get by Costa Rican club Alajuelense, and the likely play America in the final. Instead, with good scouting and a greater willingness to spend money, the Impact could have been an equal, a favourite in the CCL and be more competitive during the 2015 MLS season. As the games against Pachuca showed, in a short series the chances of winning are greater, but over a complete season the reality of what the team is becomes the truth. Using statistical models, the current Montreal Impact will struggle this season, end out of the playoffs and finishing second last in the Eastern Conference.
Goalkeeping
Many might be surprised that Evan Bush is the Montreal Impact starting keeper, although in my end of the season review I wrote despite Troy Perkins’ experience, his cost wasn't worth it and the club should give Bush a shot. After a good performance, including a game holding saves against Pachuca in the CCL Quarter-Finals, it looks like the 28 year old will get a chance of being a starting keeper. Bush had a long history in PDL before joining the Impact NASL team in 2011. In MLS, Bush only played one league game his first two seasons, although last season he played 13 games during the Impact’s struggles highlighted by an 8 save clean sheet against Chicago.
Montreal also brought in former Sporting KC starting keeper Eric Kronberg through the re-entry draft who had a good 1.10 goals against average but only .672 save percentage. Kroneberg injured his finger last season and hasn't played since, and like Bush, was mostly a backup during his career. Kronberg has great size with his 6'5 frame, but never been on the radar as a starting MLS keeper and generally there to provide depth.
The Impact USL club, FC Montreal’s starting keeper looks to be Maxime Crepeau, who is only 20 years of age. Crepeau was given a home grown contract by the Impact and is a very short keeper under 6 feet tall, although has been invited to the Canadian National Team Camp last year and was the starting keeper for Canada at the CONCACAF U20 tournament in Mexico.
I expect Bush and Kronberg to share the starting role with the Impact this season. Neither are game influencing keepers, but should be steady for the Impact providing some strength in defence.
Fullbacks
Hassoun Camara returns and with two quality centre backs looks to play as the starting right back, despite depth in the that position. Statistically, last season Camara did very well with his dribbling on offence, but struggled with his crosses. While most of his defensive stats were good, from blocking, interceptions and aerial duels, but there is a discipline worry as Camara has 20 yellow and 2 red cards in 80 career MLS games.
The other fullbacks are young, but show potential. The unfortunate story is the one regarding Cameroonian Ambroise Oyongo, who I very much like as a player and think player-for-player the Impact won the trade for Martins, although questions still exist if he will play with the Impact and with the CBA taking up most of the conversation, it looks like this story has been slipped under the rug.
I also like Montreal taking Donald Toia, who I rated as one of the top three players available from the Chivas USA dispersal draft. Toia made a name for himself at Phoenix FC during the 2013 USL Pro season, however, he was actually Real Salt Lake’s first Homegrown player in 2011 and a prospect prior to that in Arizona. Toia needs to improve his distribution, but loves to run and proven to be a strong tackler.
The Impact also have Eric Miller, who can play both Right Back or Holding Midfield, and during his first pro season showed he is a stronger defender then what he provides as an attacker. The biggest issue regarding Miller is his value once his GA Contract comes to end and his salary is counting against the cap. Finally, 21 year old Argentinian Victor Cabrera was brought in on loan from River Plate where he only played one career game with the Buenos Aires side.
Central Defenders
Laurent Ciman is a signing that I like, being aware of his contribution in the Belgium Pro League. He brings a lot of things that you don't expect from a central defender: he has good speed, is a good passer of the ball both in build-up play and long balls, and can contribute on a free kick both in the box and as the taker. Defensively, Ciman is known for his strength and plays bigger than his size, although as he experienced in the CONCACAF Champions League he has to adapt to the referees and style of play.
It looks like Ciman will team up with Bakary Soumare, an experienced MLS defender who was drafted 2nd Overall in 2007 and also played in France, although despite his success he also outpriced himself in the past in terms of value similar to Canadian National Team player Nana Attakora. Soumare has good size, strength and also a good marker and a leader in the back, but doesn't provide much on the offensive end despite his height at 6'5.
Camara will also potentially play games in the centre, while other local options Maxim Tissot and Wandrille Lefevre could spend most of their time with FC Montreal, but might be given minutes if Montreal tries to better understand what they have.
Defensive Midfield
Following the model of an Italian Serie B team, if you don't want to spend money or have the ability to scout or add prospects, you play veterans in hope that their experience can keep the club from being relegated. Nothing says veterans in terms of the MLS than Patrice Bernier, Marco Donadel, and Nigel Reo-Coker, who have played close to 300 professional game each and 200 plus games each in the top leagues in Europe. Although all three are not the players they were in their prime.
Bernier, now 35, only played half the club’s minutes last season despite showing good possession and defensive numbers. He also didn't play in key CCL games and doesn't look to be a first choice by the manager Frank Klopas. Nigel Reo-Coker struggled in his last games with Vancouver, played better with Chivas USA, but had issues throughout the season in being consistent and not making mistakes. Meanwhile, Donadel hasn't played for six months before the CCL quarterfinals, and in Italy Donadel didn't contribute offensively but was known for being a good passer and marker, although had discipline issues from poor tackling.
Calum Mallace doesn't have the same abilities or experience, but played in both CCL quarter finals games and is more likely to be fit then the players six years his senior. While Homegrown signings Louis Beland-Goyette and Jeremy Gagnon-Hamel are unproven and will also likely be part of the FC Montreal outfit.
Midfielders
With Marco DiVaio no longer on the team most of the offense for the Impact will be expected to come from the midfield. The Impact have numbers with players who provide positive skill sets, however, as a unit it’s difficult to see that they are going to provide the offence to make the Impact better this season.
The key offensive player is Ignacio Piatti, who contributed as soon as he joined the Impact after leading San Lorenzo to the 2013 Argentinian title and the 2014 Copa Libertadores. Piatti was a key contributor to San Lorenzo’s Copa Libertadores success, which gives the Impact hope regarding their CCL run, although during a complete season the most goals he scored was nine and during his time in Italy he only scored 3 goals in 36 games. What Piatti lacks in scoring is his ability to control the ball from his dribbling and passing, which may lead to opportunities for others.
Coach Klopas has a number of options to team up with Piatti, from consistent midfielder Justin Mapp, who still has good speed, or new signing Eric Alexander, who showed with the New York Red Bulls he could pass and cross the ball which led to 8 assists in 2014. Andres Romero did better than expected scoring six goals and two assists last season. Dilly Duka, who is also an option in more of a defensive role, but can score the odd goal as he showed in Mexico, and finally Dominic Oduro who is mostly regarded as a right winger but Montreal played him up front in the games against Pachuca.
The issue is, outside of Piatti, these other players throughout their career generally contribute to four or five goals a year through direct goals or assists and almost all would have to achieve career highs to give Montreal the offense that they lack in other positions.
Which might lead to a defense-first mentality and playing for nil-nil draws, so I could see the most common midfield combination of Reo-Coker, Donadel, Mapp, and Duka, with players having more potential offensively such as Romeo, Oduro and Alexander coming in off the bench.
Forwards
When Jack McInerney was traded to Montreal from Philadelphia, most so called MLS experts thought the Union let him go because McInerney was going to try his luck with a big club in Europe instead of remaining in the MLS. So most are impressed that the Impact were able to keep the 22 year old and expect big things out of him this season.
My own opinion on McInerney is different. I will acknowledge that he is able to convert his chances and deserves credit for averaging a goal every four games during his career in the MLS. He is also willing to put in a defensive shift when asked, however, I don't think his upside is that great and what you expect is 8 to 10 goals a season from a player you are almost paying a DP salary to perform at that level.
The other forwards are complete wild cards. Porter is now an Impact folk hero, although a year ago only I had him as a potential MLS prospect in my Top 100 MLS Draft handbook. What I liked about him back then is what he was capable in doing during his game tying goal against Pachuca of great effort and decent skill and concentration, but I don't expect him to be a consistent performer. Draft pick Romario Williams is an active forward, although is very raw and has a history of playing on poor teams. While Anthony Jackson-Hamel is probably the most exciting from the group of young local talent, but years away until he is a proven professional.
Analysis
The Montreal Impact are expected to play mostly a 4-5-1, although they might experiment with a 4-3-3 with Oduro and Romero upfront, especially if Piatti is out of the line up. The statistical model I used in evaluating all MLS teams has Montreal scoring 39 goals and allowing 51 for a -12 goal difference, and comparable to the new expansion clubs Orlando and NYCFC in terms of expectation. Montreal could elect to play tighter than they did last season, which might mean less goals allowed and more draws then losses from last season, however, in my opinion they are still far away from the playoffs. They still have some hope in the CCL this year and winning the Canadian Championship, although would not participate in the next CCL later this season that is already clinched by Vancouver.
Prior to the pre-season, Montreal owner Joey Saputo had a conference for local reporters that happened to take place after Toronto announced they signed Sebastian Giovinco. Being asked questions about the signing Saputo said Montreal are not going to spend money like that and you don't need DPs to be successful. I agree to this in some aspect. The problem is DPs allow you to get significantly better, upgrading from $250,000 to a multi-million dollar player.
The Montreal Impact have a lot of $250,000 players, although not the $250,000 player that has huge upside or recruited after success somewhere else, instead $250,000 because of past reputation playing in a big league or the MLS for many years. Added to this, if you remove these $250,000 players it doesn't look like the Impact have a lot of things to build on. That being said, they have the foundation of adopting a USL club, they have a number of young local players connected to the club and an owner who is ambitious with a lot of money.
I want Montreal to win the 2014-2015 CONCACAF Champions League and I think they can, and if they accomplish it they will deserve it. Although winning a 10 game tournament shouldn't cover up a team, who have been struggling in MLS since mid-2013. The club is beginning to follow the same mistakes that other expansion teams like Toronto FC or Chivas USA have done in the past, and if they continue to dig this hole, spending money on big price DP's might be the only thing that saves them.
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