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Posted by
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September 29, 2014 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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@ENBSports
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One of the most talked about topics in Canadian soccer this past summer has been the idea of a men's professional soccer league, or at minimum a number of new professional clubs. First, there was the talk of a domestic league potentially being one of the agenda items of the CSA along with the 2026 World Cup bid, then the NASL/CFL option with the idea of having clubs play in new CFL stadiums. Finally, as I mentioned in my previous article, the potential of three Canadian MLS teams competing with reserve/farm teams in USL Pro.
While only FC Montreal have been finalized for USL Pro, the option for other clubs still remain with Hamilton saying they are interested in housing a soccer club in the Ti-Cats new stadium. Out west, despite New Westminster objecting to their new soccer stadium, the Vancouver Whitecaps have mentioned they are still actively pursuing options for a USL Pro club. In Toronto, knowing TFC’s marketing department, if the club fails to make the playoffs this year, a USL Pro club might be a new way of convincing fans that they are working on building the club in the right direction.
I expect by the 2016 season at least five clubs will playing a form of second tier professional soccer in Canada. It could potentially be seven if all three MLS clubs elect to go the USL Pro route and Winnipeg wishes to have a team play in their new CFL stadium. This also considers Edmonton and Ottawa are still going strong, and although both clubs have had their troubles and were probably expecting a better 2014 season, I feel there is enough local fan support and capable ownership to allow the clubs to build from where they are now over the next couple of years.
I'm not sure some markets, specifically other Canadian CFL cities such as Calgary and Regina, will have a team because of some warning signs the Ottawa Fury have shown this season. Despite a new team and stadium, the club is averaging approximately 5,000 fans, which are decent numbers but less than expected. The current numbers should make the Fury profitable, but not a guarantee. If you look at the history of new franchises, most are launched based on comparable numbers in their respective market. It will also be interesting to see what the pricing structure and support the Canadian MLS II teams will have, as at the end of the day like most things, especially entertainment, success is all based on demand.
In my opinion, the smarter option is an independent Canadian league. Even with teams currently connected to USL Pro and NASL, at this level local rivalries mean a lot more than a team’s professional standing. I would imagine a Hamilton home game against Toronto FC II or FC Montreal would sell more tickets and generate interest than games against Minnesota and San Antonio. However, this idea would probably go against the views of the league office of MLS, NASL and USL Pro. As I have said since I first started writing for RedNation Online, and even prior which I'm happy others are seeing this point of view, is that the current American Soccer system has little interest in promoting, marketing and trying to make soccer succeed in Canada.
Personally, my experience goes back almost since the start of MLS in 1996. I followed the league closely, provided material and presented ideas regarding the league, talked about the audience potential in Canada before there were any Canadian teams, and even worked on an application for a Toronto MLS club before Toronto FC came into existence. I also had some connections with the Toronto Lynx and original version of USL Pro: the APSL. I started doing analytics and statistics in soccer in 1994 with the start of the English Premier League, US World Cup and tried to work with APSL and the old Toronto Rockets. Despite the league having players such as Dale Mitchell, Dominic Mobilio, Pat Onsted, Pat Harrington, and Jean Harbor, and Canadians teams being three out of seven clubs, the number of Canadian players in the league was less than 30%.
Soccer in America and Canada has very visible blemishes, plain and simple. We are not producing the amount of professional players based on the amount of money in the game, and the number of players willing to commit to become a professional. In my work I have a database of 80,000 players around the world, and although I cover soccer closer in North America than other leagues, I would confidently say the amount of U11-U12 players in the United States is a larger number than exists in each major European country. One would expect with these numbers a healthy pool of top level players for the global game. However, players emerging at the pro level from the age of 17 to 20 number dozens to hundreds of talented players for each European country, while in my top 100 MLS prospects for 2015 I would estimate only three or four of those players have any significant value or interest on the world soccer market.
Due to Canada’s population I don't think we are worse, but we still have our issues, even though one of the 2015 prospects I feel has value is Brampton’s Cyle Larin. The truth is the Canadian soccer pool is smaller than any I have dealt with in the world, even New Zealand. There are several countries with 1/10th the population of Canada that have twice as many professional players or soccer prospects to choose from. Part of our standing comes down to a lack of opportunities, but I think this is also a reflection of where we are; we just haven't been good enough and the amount of Canadian players deserving of pro careers might fill one or two teams’ complete roster, let alone enough players to found a league on.
This might make me the only one who questions the CSA’s motives in restricting the amount of non-Canadians who can either play in a Canadian league or on tier two Canadian teams. The reason is I look at all soccer in terms of team success and player development, and knowing the restrictions Canadian teams are already facing based on interest, budget, location and general lack of resources or proper soccer people, why make it more difficult on them? Especially by forcing teams to use players who might not be good enough, or more importantly, might not be wanted.
See also: 2014 USL Pro Top 50 prospect handbook
Recently I published a handbook on the top 50 prospects in the USL Pro. 25 are connected to an MLS team, meaning they were playing on a USL Pro team on loan or on Orlando and have an MLS contract. The other 25 players are those who in 2014 were contracted with a USL Pro club. With the expansion of MLS next season I expect most to be playing full-time in MLS and I think they were some of the best players in the USL Pro during the 2014 season. Others players who were equal were older and mostly foreign. Even out of the 50, only 60% were American. The rest composing of six from the Caribbean, five from Africa, two were Mexican and Kyle Porter and Jordan Hamilton were the two Canadians on the list. The truth is that the USL Pro and NASL are good soccer leagues in large part because of the influence of the foreign players and in many ways the same goes with PDL, College and this is even showing up in the Academy leagues.
According to talk from the CSA, if a Canadian team joins the USL Pro they want minimum restrictions of half the players need to be Canadian (playing for a Canadian National Team), at least six of eleven starters in each game, and if Canada was to start their own pro league the restrictions could be greater.
During the current NASL season, Ottawa, who have been given credit for their inclusion of Canadians, have a total of 8 from 23 players and only 37% of the total minutes played. Meanwhile, Edmonton has a total of 9 Canadians of 26 players and only 28% of the total minutes played, and both clubs have at times struggled to be competitive in the league this season. If we add Hamilton and potentially Winnipeg to that mix, we are talking another 35-40 players who are expected to play major minutes just to fit the CSA guidelines.
Then we address the three MLS reserve/farm teams. It is true they will be using a number of current Academy players who are mostly Canadian, although as I explained in my last article what has added to the buzz of these reserve teams have been the success of the LA Galaxy this season. In 2014 the LA Galaxy II used a total of 36 players throughout the season: 23 Americans, a similar ratio to an MLS team but more foreigners than a traditional USL Pro club. LAG II also sent down a number of senior players such as Gyasi Zardes, Marcelo Sarves, and Todd Dunivant to get match fitness during the season, which would be difficult for the Canadian MLS teams to do under CSA rules since most MLS players are not Canadian.
There is also the issue of the available Canadian player pool in general. Admittedly, I have a much closer relationship to soccer in Ontario than I do in British Columbia or Quebec, but I researched and asked knowledgeable Canadian soccer people which players deserve a pro team who currently don't have one. The most common names I received were Emery Welshman, Matt Stinson, Jonathan Lao, Nicholas Lindsay, Josh Janniere, Keith Makubuya and Oscar Cordon. From watching League One Ontario games this summer I agree with this list and all these players deserve an opportunity. The problem is they also have something else in common: they are all ex-Toronto FC players who the Reds have given up on.
So why, hypothetically as an example, would Toronto FC II want to hire a number of ex-players only to fit a quota and why would a player want to join a club who have already cast them off? I've been told these are similar scenarios with both the Vancouver Whitecaps and Montreal Impact where players who they feel have something to show and improve got to this level in soccer by starting out in each clubs’ MLS academies, but were thought not good enough to be given long term MLS contracts.
This doesn't always mean that these released players deserve a shot, and there are a number of other Canadian players should also be given a chance to play professionally. Some names to include would be former NCAA players Joe Anderson, Christian Seon, Evan James, Babayele Sodade, Etienne Boulanger, Milo Kapor, Alon Badat, Jarrett Hamilton and Jordan Ongaro. Added to that list are current League One Ontario players Jason Mills, Sergio Ribadeneira, Andrew Ornoch, Michael Pio and Franco Lo Presti, to name a few. While finally, names such as Sando Rajkovic, Adrian Leroy, Ledi Bushiri, Justin Maheu, Julian Uccello, Adam Street and Gabe Gala are also talented players who arguably deserved more opportunities than they were ever given.
This is one reason I suggested starting a project similar to NHL Central Scouting used in Ice Hockey to have an ongoing scouting record of every potential player. The purpose would be to use it for work with clubs, agents, players and other people involved in the game so no one falls through the cracks. However, when I proposed this idea to a handful of governing bodies, like many logical ideas in sports, it was unfortunately dismissed.
Which brings me back to the CSA, where playing hardball before things actually take place or after the fact doesn't mean much. In my opinion, where we should have played a major role is in getting MLS to regard Canadian players as domestics across the league. MLSE’s mandate by bringing in Toronto FC, while holding hands with the CSA, was to provide a building block for Canadian soccer. Yet eight years in the team is resigned to spending millions of dollars on an American, a Brazilian and Englishman and still can't accomplish just a playoff spot. Vancouver and Montreal have strong reputations based on their academy teams and playing in USSDA, PDL and now USL Pro, but are still mostly struggling teams on the pitch. Based on what actually exists here in Canada, we should be further along than we are.
However, I'm not saying the task in front of everybody is easy, but I would expect I am not alone in believing we can and should do better. Sports is almost more about failing than winning, especially when you are looking for the ultimate success of a championship, a winning culture or generating a profit. Based on this failure, it’s a much crueler world as well. There is a reason why coaches only last a couple of seasons, GMs and upper management have short life spans as well, and for a player, most of their supporters need to realize that based on options many of the players are just not good enough to be integral components of title-winning or highly competitive teams.
From my experience of being involved with Canadian soccer, the players and their families put the effort in. Entities like League One Ontario are still growing, but also showing why they are a needed step in showcasing and developing players, and the pro teams have shown effort but still need grow and more importantly become smarter and find competitive advantages. This is also true with soccer at a youth level where I feel clubs need to bring in more experienced coaches, even affiliating themselves with successful European Academies. While lastly, the CSA needs to be accountable on every front.
There will be a lot of money made from the upcoming Women's World Cup and if this money is not used in the right way, or soccer in Canada doesn't become smarter, we will lose this potential. Instead of being an unwanted part of the American system, we could become independent and control our own soccer destiny – which will be the ultimate step forward for the sport in Canada.
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