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Posted by
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April 2, 2018 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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@ENBSports
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When you think of Mexican soccer, Club America is one of the first names that come to mind. Ninety-Four consecutive seasons in the Mexican top divisions and 12 titles, which ties them with Mexico's other iconic team Guadalajara Chivas. America has also had success in the CONCACAF Champions League winning the tournament a record seven times, including recent titles in 2015 and 2016. When I think CF America, through a Canadian lens, it is their home stadium that comes to mind of Estadio Azteca. America share the stadium with the Mexican National Team, who has beaten the Canadian National Team in five games since 1993, outscoring us 20-0 including a 2-0 loss in the last World Cup Qualifiers in 2016. No surprise, CF America also have a strong record in the iconic stadium losing only seven times in the last five years, although this includes one of their most recent home games to Toluca in LigaMx 2-1, however, an early red card to America did have some influence on the games.
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Despite Club America's history, the home stadium advantage for the second leg, and currently fourth with only that loss to Toluca in LigaMX, I see Toronto FC favorites to advance from the upcoming semi-finals match up. America has changed their roster over quite a bit the past couple of seasons, with Carlos Quintero the most recent high profile departure with the Colombian recently signing in MLS with Minnesota. He has joined players such as Dario Benedetto, Osvaldo Martinez, Silvio Romero and Paolo Goltz who were key players in those recent CONCACAF Champions League wins that recently left the club. America brought a younger core of South American players in to replace them in Cecilio Dominguez, Guido Rodriguez, Bruno Valdez, Renato Ibarra, Mateus Uribe and Andres Ibarguen. As well, after the success of Andre-Pierre Gignac with Tigres brought in their own experienced Frenchman in Jeremy Menez. The 30 year old played with Monaco, Roma, PSG, Milan and in Turkey before joining America.
These are good players, although unlike Tigres I don't feel America have the finishers that Tigres had. After 12 games in the LigaMX Clausura, Club America's leading goal scorer is Henry Martin with five goals, where the 26 year old signing from Tijuana only had 5 in his previous 66 games with the Xolos. Their biggest threats look to be Uribe, who has seven career goals with America in 22 games, Dominguez who has seven career goals in 33 games and Ibarra who has four in 52, although like Toronto's Vazquez, is good at creating opportunities for others. America also has Oribe Peralta, the 34 year old who has 159 career LigaMX goals in 471 games, although is beginning to look his age.
So certainly in comparison to UANL Tigres, America doesn't have the attacking strength, especially through build up play, instead they depend on good defense and taking advantage of mistakes via their opponents. America actually are towards the bottom in LigaMX in terms of possession and passing and in comparison to Toronto over the last year averages 150 less passes per game. That being said, I do expect America to control a fair share of possession in the game versus Toronto as that is what traditionally happens in games between LigaMX and MLS sides. Unlike the Tigres game, Toronto's defenders don't need to sit back as much and Toluca had success in pressuring the America's attacking players into mistakes which has been some of the criticism of Ibarra, Uribe and Dominguez since joining the Mexican side.
Toronto are coming off a good win against Real Salt Lake, and the best signs for the Reds is Giovinco and Altidore are in form with the two combining for 12 shots and Giovinco adding four key passes. Jonathan Osorio also continues to play strong and will be hoping to continue his good play in the CONCACAF Champions League. Despite some early criticism of Aketxe and Gregory van der Weil, I thought both played well on Friday and it showed by both having over 90% passing completion. Concerns were how Toronto looked under pressure late in the game with Plata having a good chance in the second half when Salt Lake got some of the ball and Corey Baird scoring his first ever MLS goal when Toronto were unable the clear their own box. Like late in the Tigres game, lapses in concentration can be costly, especially if Toronto are unlucky in converting their own chances.
My prediction is Toronto will get through, like the Tigres game, with the home leg being critical and think Toronto actually benefit playing the first game at home. Weather on Tuesday night is supposed to be cold and wet and the poor playing pitch should benefit Toronto as well since they've now played four home games. I expect America to take limited risks in the game in Toronto, so for TFC to be successful they will have to attack, although the form of Giovinco and Altidore should at least produce a goal or two. Like the away game against Tigres, I expect the same atmosphere at the Azteca so it will be necessary for Toronto FC too keep their cool, attack like its any other game, something the club did show in Monterrey, defend with everyone behind the ball if necessary, and if the crowds turns on America don't let the hostile environment influence your play. The goal is simply to get out of these two games victorious and advance to the Championship series.
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Aaron Neilsen is a co-founder of Prospect XI (Prospect Eleven), a scouting network and online magazine dedicated to tracking/highlighting young players that refer to as "prospects" as well as their development pathways both within North America and worldwide. Follow PXI via www.prospectxi.com or on twitter @ProspectXI.
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