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Posted by
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December 8, 2016 |
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Aaron Nielsen
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@ENBSports
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One-off matches to decide championships are never ideal, and when you add in the Americanized showmanship that MLS adds to their final, it is hard to believe this is not a distraction from the game itself. From long pre-game shows and an increased half-time where stages and dancers are moved on top of the pitch, to the who and where people are sitting in the stadium. These things will make the game feel different than any MLS game, including a game with added pressure like Toronto FC’s last Wednesday.
Adding to this is the pressure on both Toronto and Seattle to win their first MLS Cup, especially with the history of both clubs in the league. This being said, the game will eventually be played out either in 90 minutes, 120 minutes, or penalty kicks like the hundreds of games these clubs and players have played in before. Unlike Toronto's last opponent Montreal, the Reds don't see Seattle often. This will be the eleventh all-time meeting with the Sounders winning 7 times, Toronto twice and the teams also drawing twice. Toronto also doesn't have a good record hosting them at home, only winning once in five games which also includes a draw from earlier on this season.
Toronto and Seattle played to a 1-1 draw on July 2nd at BMO field. Greg Vanney was handcuffed in terms of players as Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley were both unavailable. Vanney also decided to rest regulars Drew Moor, Justin Morrow and Jonathan Osorio, although the one interesting note in terms of how the Reds set up in this game is it was one of the first times the club experimented with their 3-5-2 “go to” formation with Zavaleta and Hagglund being two of the center backs. Seattle line-up looked more like it will be for MLS Cup, although Roman Torres was still injured and the Sounders had yet to sign their talisman Nicolas Lodeiro.
Both teams failed to impress that day with Toronto taking the lead from Altidore replacement Jordan Hamilton on a Sebastian Giovinco rebound, then immediately after Seattle tied the game on a goal from Jordan Morris with probably the only move of true skill in the game. Although soccer games are not all goals, and we should expect the MLS Cup Final to be a tight one, so it is interesting to see how tactically the teams played on that night and what is expected for the finals.
Looking at the touches and position from this game the first thing that sticks out is the Sounders almost play a 2-3-3-2 formation oppose to a 4-2-3-1. With slow defensive-minded center backs in Zach Scott and Chad Marshall playing farther back and having limited touches. Torres will be replacing Scott in the final, although I expect the Sounders to play in the same fashion. The real movement of play for the Sounders is in their next three of full-backs Joevin Jones, Tyrone Mears and holding midfielder Osvaldo Alonso. Throughout the season, and during this game in particular, these players touched the ball a number of times transitioning play from the center or either wings.
Since the addition of Lodeiro, how much the Sounders rely on these three has changed, with Lodeiro quarterbacking most offensive rushes which has allowed Alonso to play farther back and improved Seattle’s overall defense. It will be interesting with Toronto also playing their own wing backs in Morrow and Steven Beitashour to see who will control the flanks, as unlike with Montreal, neither team has players with great speed.
Toronto’s midfield three on July 2nd were Endoh, Chapman and Delgado. A huge difference than the expected Bradley, Cooper and Johnson for the final, yet on the game earlier in the season TFC had the same amount of possession in the game as the Sounders. This potentially is a huge advantage for the Reds and could allow them control the midfield as we’ve seen throughout this successful playoff run. Seattle will look to counter with Friberg and Roldon who played in the game on July 2nd and were not overly effective but can be a threat if you give them space and are willing to take a shot from distance.
The Sounders front two will most likely be Jordan Morris and Nelson Valdez. Morris is a player I talked about a lot during his time as an amateur and has had an effective rookie season, winning the rookie of year and scoring 12 goals during the regular season and two playoff goals. This is despite many games, and in my opinion, not used to his full ability. Morris has been used mostly as a target man this season like on July 2nd, although as witnessed by his goal he has the ability to play with the ball at his feet as well as run past a defender and shoot from many areas on the pitch. Morris has been given more freedom since Lodeiro has joined the team and Clint Dempsey been sidelined. I don't expect Morris to get many touches in the final, although he is always a threat to score.
Valdez came on as a sub on July 2nd and despite a successful career that has seen him play in the World Cup as well as for clubs Borussia Dortmund, Valencia, and Olympiacos, he has struggled with the Sounders only scoring one goal in 31 games in 2016 and none this MLS season. This has all changed during this playoff run as Valdez has been a key contributor including scoring two goals and adding an assist and establishing himself in the starting eleven. Valdez only played 20 minutes in the game against Toronto although was one of his more effective appearances before the playoffs getting three shots on net including one on target.
Meanwhile, for Toronto Jozy Altidore provides a target man, something they didn't have in the game on July 2nd and because of this most of Toronto's chances came through the center of the pitch. Since the playoffs began, Toronto has scored a post-season record 17 goals and one of the reasons they have been so effective is their ability to score from inside the 18 yard box, especially from crosses and set plays. Sounders center backs Torres and Marshall are two of the more dominating defenders in the league, both over six feet tall and winning on average twice as many aerial duels as they lose. Expect a battle within the Sounders 18 yard box especially when Tosaint Ricketts is subbed in. That being said, I don't expect Altidore to be as effective as he was against Montreal and Toronto might have to rely on other options to score goals.
Which leaves me with the two players I think will be key in how their team perform in the final Giovinco and Lodeiro. Not surprising, as both players are two of the top stars in MLS, although the way this game is lining up it could be a 1v1 match-up between the two. If Altidore is held by the Seattle center backs, the full-backs cancel each other on the wings and Bradley and Alonso clog up the midfield the game might rely on individual brilliance, which both Giovinco and Lodeiro can provide. Both are very effective free kick takers and both score goals from distance, however, in this game I might give Giovinco the advantage between the two.
Position-wise both will be in similar roles playing behind the target men, but Lodeiro is more of an attacking midfielder whilel Giovinco is a forward. This tends to mean that Giovinco is looking to shoot first, while Lodeiro is looking to pass. Lodeiro did take 33 shots in 13 games during the regular season, although it doesn't compare to the 177 taken by Giovinco in 28 games. With the success of the rest of the team, Giovinco hasn't got the headlines he's used to, but despite this he still has four goals and two assists in the playoffs to go with his 17 goals and 15 assists in the regular season. I feel the match that potentially relates best to the final is the game against Philadelphia to start the playoffs where Altidore was looked at as the player of the game, but Giovinco scored the first goal and dictated play through his 64 touches in the game.
I feel for Lodeiro to be effective he will rely more on his forwards Morris and Valdez. How many opportunities and how the three combine should be the biggest worry for Toronto FC. Moor, Hagglund and Zavaleta have improved as a back three during this playoff run, although have also made mistakes which have led to goals especially Ignacio Piatti’s in the last game. Morris and Valdez might not have the athletic ability as other forwards in the league but are as tricky as any forward combination in the league and with Lodeiro’s vision, this has led to both good opportunities and goals.
With the amount of pressure going into this game and what is on the line, the smartest prediction will be that this game will be a defensive battle with odds quite high on the game going into extra time and penalty kicks. Although the way these teams match up I do feel there will be goals because I don't think either team is capable of closing down the offensive threat of either opponent.
In terms of a prediction, that is more difficult because I do feel Seattle's three-prong attack will get opportunities and have the ability to convert. However, at the same time watching Toronto FC over the past two years I have seen how effective Giovinco has been with realistically Montreal the only side capable of stopping him, and even against them he played a role. There is also the issue of whenever I had high hopes for Toronto FC they have underperformed. Watching on Saturday I will try to pretend it is a normal game, come to terms it is MLS so the game will not be played perfectly, but appreciate even more the effect Giovinco has had on this league and what he has done for Toronto FC.
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Aaron Neilsen is a co-founder of Prospect XI (Prospect Eleven), a scouting network and online magazine dedicated to tracking/highlighting young players that refer to as "prospects" as well as their development pathways both within North America and worldwide. Follow PXI via www.prospectxi.com or on twitter @ProspectXI.
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